early warning
A Graph Neural Network Approach for Localized and High-Resolution Temperature Forecasting
El-Shawa, Joud, Bagheri, Elham, Kocak, Sedef Akinli, Mohsenzadeh, Yalda
Heatwaves are intensifying worldwide and are among the deadliest weather disasters. The burden falls disproportionately on marginalized populations and the Global South, where under-resourced health systems, exposure to urban heat islands, and the lack of adaptive infrastructure amplify risks. Yet current numerical weather prediction models often fail to capture micro-scale extremes, leaving the most vulnerable excluded from timely early warnings. We present a Graph Neural Network framework for localized, high-resolution temperature forecasting. By leveraging spatial learning and efficient computation, our approach generates forecasts at multiple horizons, up to 48 hours. For Southwestern Ontario, Canada, the model captures temperature patterns with a mean MAE of 1.93$^{\circ}$C across 1-48h forecasts and MAE@48h of 2.93$^{\circ}$C, evaluated using 24h input windows on the largest region. While demonstrated here in a data-rich context, this work lays the foundation for transfer learning approaches that could enable localized, equitable forecasts in data-limited regions of the Global South.
- North America > United States (0.15)
- North America > Mexico > Sonora (0.04)
- North America > Canada > Ontario > Toronto (0.04)
- North America > Canada > Ontario > Middlesex County > London (0.04)
Predict and Resist: Long-Term Accident Anticipation under Sensor Noise
Liu, Xingcheng, Rao, Bin, Guan, Yanchen, Wang, Chengyue, Liao, Haicheng, Zhang, Jiaxun, Lin, Chengyu, Zhu, Meixin, Li, Zhenning
Accident anticipation is essential for proactive and safe autonomous driving, where even a brief advance warning can enable critical evasive actions. However, two key challenges hinder real-world deployment: (1) noisy or degraded sensory inputs from weather, motion blur, or hardware limitations, and (2) the need to issue timely yet reliable predictions that balance early alerts with false-alarm suppression. We propose a unified framework that integrates diffusion-based denoising with a time-aware actor-critic model to address these challenges. The diffusion module reconstructs noise-resilient image and object features through iterative refinement, preserving critical motion and interaction cues under sensor degradation. In parallel, the actor-critic architecture leverages long-horizon temporal reasoning and time-weighted rewards to determine the optimal moment to raise an alert, aligning early detection with reliability. Experiments on three benchmark datasets (DAD, CCD, A3D) demonstrate state-of-the-art accuracy and significant gains in mean time-to-accident, while maintaining robust performance under Gaussian and impulse noise. Qualitative analyses further show that our model produces earlier, more stable, and human-aligned predictions in both routine and highly complex traffic scenarios, highlighting its potential for real-world, safety-critical deployment.
- North America > United States (0.05)
- Asia > Macao (0.05)
- Asia > China > Hong Kong (0.04)
- Asia > China > Guangdong Province > Shenzhen (0.04)
- Information Technology (1.00)
- Transportation > Ground > Road (0.34)
A Self-Adaptive Frequency Domain Network for Continuous Intraoperative Hypotension Prediction
Zeng, Xian, Xu, Tianze, Yang, Kai, Sun, Jie, Wang, Youran, Xu, Jun, Ren, Mucheng
Intraoperative hypotension (IOH) is strongly associated with postoperative complications, including postoperative delirium and increased mortality, making its early prediction crucial in perioperative care. While several artificial intelligence-based models have been developed to provide IOH warnings, existing methods face limitations in incorporating both time and frequency domain information, capturing short- and long-term dependencies, and handling noise sensitivity in biosignal data. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Self-Adaptive Frequency Domain Network (SAFDNet). Specifically, SAFDNet integrates an adaptive spectral block, which leverages Fourier analysis to extract frequency-domain features and employs self-adaptive thresholding to mitigate noise. Additionally, an interactive attention block is introduced to capture both long-term and short-term dependencies in the data. Extensive internal and external validations on two large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate that SAFDNet achieves up to 97.3\% AUROC in IOH early warning, outperforming state-of-the-art models. Furthermore, SAFDNet exhibits robust predictive performance and low sensitivity to noise, making it well-suited for practical clinical applications.
- Asia > South Korea > Seoul > Seoul (0.04)
- Asia > China > Jiangsu Province > Nanjing (0.04)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (1.00)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.93)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Cardiology/Vascular Diseases (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Surgery (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Diagnostic Medicine (1.00)
An Attention-based Framework with Multistation Information for Earthquake Early Warnings
Huang, Yu-Ming, Chen, Kuan-Yu, Lin, Wen-Wei, Chen, Da-Yi
Earthquake early warning systems play crucial roles in reducing the risk of seismic disasters. Previously, the dominant modeling system was the single-station models. Such models digest signal data received at a given station and predict earth-quake parameters, such as the p-phase arrival time, intensity, and magnitude at that location. Various methods have demonstrated adequate performance. However, most of these methods present the challenges of the difficulty of speeding up the alarm time, providing early warning for distant areas, and considering global information to enhance performance. Recently, deep learning has significantly impacted many fields, including seismology. Thus, this paper proposes a deep learning-based framework, called SENSE, for the intensity prediction task of earthquake early warning systems. To explicitly consider global information from a regional or national perspective, the input to SENSE comprises statistics from a set of stations in a given region or country. The SENSE model is designed to learn the relationships among the set of input stations and the locality-specific characteristics of each station. Thus, SENSE is not only expected to provide more reliable forecasts by considering multistation data but also has the ability to provide early warnings to distant areas that have not yet received signals. This study conducted extensive experiments on datasets from Taiwan and Japan. The results revealed that SENSE can deliver competitive or even better performances compared with other state-of-the-art methods.
- North America > United States (1.00)
- Asia (1.00)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Upstream (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.46)
Gaussian Derivative Change-point Detection for Early Warnings of Industrial System Failures
An early warning of future system failure is essential for conducting predictive maintenance and enhancing system availability. This paper introduces a three-step framework for assessing system health to predict imminent system breakdowns. First, the Gaussian Derivative Change-Point Detection (GDCPD) algorithm is proposed for detecting changes in the high-dimensional feature space. GDCPD conducts a multivariate Change-Point Detection (CPD) by implementing Gaussian derivative processes for identifying change locations on critical system features, as these changes eventually will lead to system failure. To assess the significance of these changes, Weighted Mahalanobis Distance (WMD) is applied in both offline and online analyses. In the offline setting, WMD helps establish a threshold that determines significant system variations, while in the online setting, it facilitates real-time monitoring, issuing alarms for potential future system breakdowns. Utilizing the insights gained from the GDCPD and monitoring scheme, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is then employed to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system. The experimental study of a real-world system demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in accurately forecasting system failures well before they occur. By integrating CPD with real-time monitoring and RUL prediction, this methodology significantly advances system health monitoring and early warning capabilities.
EEG-DIF: Early Warning of Epileptic Seizures through Generative Diffusion Model-based Multi-channel EEG Signals Forecasting
Jiang, Zekun, Dai, Wei, Wei, Qu, Qin, Ziyuan, Li, Kang, Zhang, Le
Multi-channel EEG signals are commonly used for the diagnosis and assessment of diseases such as epilepsy. Currently, various EEG diagnostic algorithms based on deep learning have been developed. However, most research efforts focus solely on diagnosing and classifying current signal data but do not consider the prediction of future trends for early warning. Additionally, since multi-channel EEG can be essentially regarded as the spatio-temporal signal data received by detectors at different locations in the brain, how to construct spatio-temporal information representations of EEG signals to facilitate future trend prediction for multi-channel EEG becomes an important problem. This study proposes a multi-signal prediction algorithm based on generative diffusion models (EEG-DIF), which transforms the multi-signal forecasting task into an image completion task, allowing for comprehensive representation and learning of the spatio-temporal correlations and future developmental patterns of multi-channel EEG signals. Here, we employ a publicly available epilepsy EEG dataset to construct and validate the EEG-DIF. The results demonstrate that our method can accurately predict future trends for multi-channel EEG signals simultaneously. Furthermore, the early warning accuracy for epilepsy seizures based on the generated EEG data reaches 0.89. In general, EEG-DIF provides a novel approach for characterizing multi-channel EEG signals and an innovative early warning algorithm for epilepsy seizures, aiding in optimizing and enhancing the clinical diagnosis process. The code is available at https://github.com/JZK00/EEG-DIF.
- Asia > China > Sichuan Province > Chengdu (0.04)
- Europe > Switzerland > Basel-City > Basel (0.04)
- Research Report > Promising Solution (0.66)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.48)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Neurology > Epilepsy (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Genetic Disease (1.00)
Early warning indicators via latent stochastic dynamical systems
Feng, Lingyu, Gao, Ting, Xiao, Wang, Duan, Jinqiao
Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, financial crises, and engineering reliability. To this end, we develop a novel approach: the directed anisotropic diffusion map that captures the latent evolutionary dynamics in the low-dimensional manifold. Then three effective warning signals (Onsager-Machlup Indicator, Sample Entropy Indicator, and Transition Probability Indicator) are derived through the latent coordinates and the latent stochastic dynamical systems. To validate our framework, we apply this methodology to authentic electroencephalogram (EEG) data. We find that our early warning indicators are capable of detecting the tipping point during state transition. This framework not only bridges the latent dynamics with real-world data but also shows the potential ability for automatic labeling on complex high-dimensional time series.
Early Warning: Changes in Speech May Be the First Sign of Parkinson's Disease
Parkinson's disease is a progressive nervous system disorder that affects movement and muscle control. Lithuanian researchers from Kaunas University of Technology (KTU) utilized AI to identify the early signs of Parkinson's disease using voice data. The diagnosis of Parkinson's disease has shaken many lives, with over 10 million people currently living with the condition. Although there is no cure, early detection of symptoms can lead to better management of the disease. As the disease progresses, changes in speech can occur alongside other symptoms.
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Neurology > Parkinson's Disease (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Musculoskeletal (1.00)
New AI technology can predict tsunami impacts in less than a second
"The main advantage of our method is the speed of predictions, which is crucial for early warning," explained Iyan Mulia, the work's lead and a scientist at RIKEN. "Conventional tsunami modeling provides predictions after 30 minutes, which is too late. But our model can make predictions within seconds." To achieve this, the coast now boasts the world's largest network of sensors for monitoring the movement of the ocean floor. About 150 offshore stations make up this network and work together in order to provide early warnings of tsunamis. To function effectively, however, the data generated by the sensors needs to be converted into tsunami heights and extents along the coastline.
Deep learning can predict tsunami impacts in less than second
Detailed predictions about how an approaching tsunami will impact the northeastern coastline in Japan can be made in fractions of a second rather than half an hour or so-buying precious time for people to take appropriate action1. This potentially life-saving technology exploits the power of machine learning. The catastrophic tsunami that struck northeast Japan on 11 March 2011 claimed the lives of about 18,500 people. Many lives might have been saved if early warning of the impending tsunami had included accurate predictions of how high the water would reach at different points along the coastline and further inland. The coast now boasts the world's largest network of sensors for monitoring movement of the ocean floor.